SACRAMENTO, California — The field vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom may lack star power, but the race itself has delivered no shortage of plot twists.
After waiting in vain for a heavyweight candidate like former Vice President Kamala Harris or Sen. Alex Padilla, Democratic leaders began to panic over a nightmare scenario: so many Democrats splitting the vote that both leading Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could advance from the top-two primary on June 2 — raising the once-unthinkable prospect of a GOP governor in deep-blue California.
Then the race swerved again. Many Democrats had started lining up behind then-Rep. Eric Swalwell, a virtual unknown to Sacramento politics, before his campaign — and political career — imploded last month amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Suddenly, former Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra surged to the front of the Democratic pack after languishing in polls and fundraising. He’s now locked in an intense face-off with Tom Steyer, a billionaire running as a progressive populist who has poured some $200 million of his own fortune into the bid.
To make sense of it all, we convened a panel of California-based political reporters who have been breaking news and uncovering shifting dynamics in the race for many months. Melanie Mason, Jeremy B. White, Dustin Gardiner and Blake Jones talked through what surprised them the most, what to watch on Tuesday, and the latest possibility Sacramento is gaming out: two Democrats advancing to the general election.
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Anyone who thought they understood the shape of this race a year ago was proven wrong. Kamala Harris and Alex Padilla stayed out, Katie Porter stumbled after some unflattering videos surfaced, and Eric Swalwell left the race following allegations of sexual assault and misconduct. What's been the biggest surprise to each of you?
Jeremy White: I’ll go with how quickly Xavier Becerra moved into the frontrunner position after Eric Swalwell dropped out. Usually it takes some time for Sacramento consensus to translate into voter behavior, but in this case it happened almost immediately and without Becerra spending much money.
Dustin Gardiner: What Jeremy said is true. At the same time, I was baffled by how difficult it was for the political establishment in Sacramento or the Democratic Party to find a consensus candidate akin to the likes of Gavin Newsom or Jerry Brown. It’s not like they didn't know this election was coming. But it seemed like there was little, if any, effort to coalesce the field until very late last year. And then, none of the folks who might have united the establishment wanted to run. So, now, Becerra is the least-offensive option.
Melanie Mason: I’ve been surprised at how reactive the state’s major political players have been in this race. There seemed to be a real paralysis among interest groups for much of the year — much of their decisions were guided by candidate viability (which turned out to be quite wrong!) versus a strong sense of what they were looking for in a governor. Since the state's electorate does not really engage until quite late, that meant the vast majority of this race was stuck in a state of suspended animation.
Blake Jones: Becerra’s quick rise and Swalwell’s even faster fall were the biggest shocks of the campaign. But Katie Porter slipping out of the race’s top tier has been almost as surprising. A year ago, she looked like the frontrunner, and now, she’s mired in single digits of support.
There was a stretch when Democrats seriously feared getting locked out of the top two. Is that still a real possibility, Melanie and Jeremy, or does a Democratic runoff in November actually seem more likely?
White: It seems very remote now — in fact, the smarter money is on two Democrats making the runoff in Steyer and Becerra. Still unlikely, but likelier than a two-Republican finish that locks out Democrats. A sign of how topsy-turvy this race has been!
Mason: It’s highly unlikely Democrats will be locked out. Gavin Newsom and Rusty Hicks, the state party chair, have said it themselves. But that message has not gotten to Democratic voters, who are still very concerned about two Republicans advancing in the race. That’s why we’ve seen people hold onto their ballots for much longer than normal; voters are waiting to see which of the top-performing Democrats is most likely to make it into the run-off. It’s prompting people to do a lot of strategic voting versus choosing the candidate that they like the most.
If we do end up with a Becerra-Steyer runoff, what becomes the central fault line in that Dem-on-Dem race? Is it ideology, class, competence, establishment versus outsider — or something else entirely?
Gardiner: Unless Steyer manages to completely reframe the race around policy ideology, which he’s had a hard time doing with progressives in the primary, identity will play a central role. Melanie mentioned the historic nature of Becerra’s candidacy in terms of Latino representation. Class identity would also be crucial in the sense that Steyer faces an uphill battle winning over the hearts of progressives who are naturally wary of a billionaire who lives in a mansion in one of San Francisco’s most affluent enclaves.
White: In some ways, this would be a clear distinction between two Democrats representing different wings of the party: Steyer has worked hard to position himself as the progressive with big plans to institute single-payer health care, tax corporations and break up utilities like PG&E. Becerra has presented himself as more of a reasonable middle-ground candidate.
I’d be most interested to see how Sacramento special interests respond. Some, like real estate and utility interests, have spent a ton of money to suppress Steyer. Do they keep that money flowing through November, especially since Steyer can match and likely outspend them? Similarly, do the pro-Becerra groups — including corporate energy and health care players — keep pouring it on for him?
Jones: If the primary is any indication, ideological policy proposals will stay in the background. Yes, Steyer is running to Becerra’s left, but the attacks traded between their camps have mostly been about money. For Steyer, it’s shaming Becerra about his corporate donors. For Becerra, it’s shaming Steyer about how he made his billions. The campaigns have seemingly made the calculation that those hits will break through as effectively as anything, even if Steyer is also savaging Becerra over his management record on the side. Expect more of the same in an intraparty run-off.
Mason: All of the above, probably. Steyer has explicitly carved out a progressive lane while Becerra has been harder to pin down ideologically — I’d expect Steyer would amp up the pressure on Becerra to articulate his positions more clearly. The class issue will also be pretty potent. Voters’ biggest hangup with Steyer is that he’s a billionaire and so he’s explicitly running on the idea that he’s a class traitor who will soak the rich. Becerra has a compelling working-class backstory that he often talks about on the trail — it’s also a way for him to bring up his immigrant parents, which is highly relatable in a diverse state like California. I wouldn't be surprised if the history-making nature of his candidacy (he’d be the first Latino governor in the state in the modern era) is also featured much more prominently.
Steve Hilton, the leading Republican, has repeatedly urged Chad Bianco to drop out, warning that splitting the GOP vote could lead to that very scenario of handing both runoff spots to Democrats. Blake, given that neither is especially likely to win a November general election in California against a Democrat, what are the stakes for the GOP here?
Jones: Many Republican operatives in California are relying on Steve Hilton to run a turnout-inspiring campaign, even if he won’t win. In the last couple of cycles, the California GOP has lacked a candidate at the top of the ticket with the polish of a former Fox News host or the policy chops of a former policy adviser. GOP insiders believe Hilton can perform well and flex his Trump endorsement to motivate GOP voters to turn out and buoy candidates down the ballot — as well as a voter ID measure.
Californians have been slow to cast ballots this year. Who’s still holding onto votes, and which campaigns should be nervous about what’s left to come in?
Gardiner: At this rate, voters in almost every demographic group have been holding onto their ballots later than usual. That reflects the sense of angst many voters have about this election. People are still trying to make sense of this Democratic field, even with Becerra's surge. The big unknown is whether a last-minute showing by more progressive, younger voters could boost Steyer.
Mason: Democrats, broadly, have been holding onto their ballots, particularly older voters, who tend to be the most reliable in primaries. I think that’s reflective of the unsettledness among high-information Democratic voters — those who have been following the twists and turns of this race are waiting to see if there's one more swerve to come.
Jones: Becerra has the most reason to be nervous. As the polling frontrunner, he should benefit from early ballot mail-ins before public opinion shifts once again.
Tom Steyer has now spent close to $200 million of his own wealth on this race. Jeremy, Melanie, what has that money actually bought him — name ID, credibility, a coalition? And what does his candidacy tell us about the role of personal wealth in California politics right now?
White: When it became clear Steyer was laying the groundwork for a run, a fair number of Sacramento insiders rolled their eyes. Here was a guy who’d spent hundreds of millions of dollars on a 2020 presidential bid and did not win a single delegate.
Well, this race looks very different. Steyer’s money has given him an unrivaled ability to communicate with voters, which in turn has allowed him to ascend from single digits into the top tier. His aforementioned progressive stances are appealing to a swathe of Democratic voters — but the reason voters know about those positions in the first place is because he's made himself ubiquitous.
It's also helped him make inroads with some Sacramento interest groups. Steyer has said to labor, for example, that he would help pass a long-elusive commercial property tax increase — and while some of that would be his bully pulpit, you’d have to think some of it would be financial support.
Mason: Steyer’s wealth not only paid for gobs of TV and digital ads, it was also the background context for some of the campaign pledges he’s made. For example, we reported earlier this year that Steyer was telling labor groups he’d back a special election in 2027 to raise corporate taxes. While he didn’t explicitly say he’d use his money to finance such a campaign, he also didn’t rule it out — which raises some fascinating questions about how Steyer would use his wealth to advance his policy goals if and when he gets to office.
But Steyer’s campaign is also a testament to the limitations of money. Yes, he spent an eye-popping number on ads, but his support has never really broken past the high teens (and some low twenties in private polls). Clearly, there was a saturation point where all of Steyer's money could not push him into undisputed frontrunner status. It’s a good reminder: Californians don’t love self-financing gubernatorial candidates. Just ask Meg Whitman or Al Checchi.
Matt Mahan was Silicon Valley's handpicked candidate, backed by wealthy tech donors who saw him as a proof of concept for a more business-friendly style of California politics. But he entered the race late and never broke through. Jeremy, Dustin, did the tech world misread the electorate — or misunderstand how politics actually works?
White: Unlike for Mick Jagger, time was not on Matt Mahan’s side. He entered late, as you note, and he also came in with minimal name ID — which meant he needed an enormous amount of money very quickly. And donors did pour tens of millions of dollars into his campaign and supportive PACs.
It wasn’t enough. There was frustration in both directions: Some donors didn't understand why Mahan wasn’t rising in the polls, and so they were reluctant to give more. Some of the campaign professionals and other supporters faulted tech donors for reneging on their commitments when they didn’t see that return on investment fast enough.
But also, Mahan never got real traction with the groups and officials who lend credibility to campaigns. Especially for an obscure candidate who’d never run statewide, that made it hard to break through. Running as an outsider poses challenges.
Gardiner: Tech megadonors underestimated how difficult it would be for Mahan to build statewide name ID after only serving in local office in San Jose. No offense to San Jose, but a lot of voters outside of the Bay Area think of it as a big suburb. They don’t pay attention to its politics the way they might other large cities. In terms of messaging, Mahan's campaign and his donors were too slow to adjust his schtick for Democratic primary voters. They didn’t seem to understand, until it was too late, that he needed the party base and couldn’t rely on independents or centrist Republicans to help get him over the hump. That centrist appeal doesn't work so well in a crowded primary that will have low voter turnout.
For a moment last fall, it looked like California might just elect its first woman governor. Now, Katie Porter is polling far behind Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer. Melanie, what happened? Was this mostly about the viral videos, or were there deeper weaknesses in her candidacy?
Mason: The videos certainly didn’t help — they offered tangible proof about Porter's long-rumored history of treating staff badly and being difficult to work with. But more importantly, they gave major political players a reason to pause on lining up behind Porter. Even though she had been doing a quasi-charm offensive tour with insiders for months, trying to assuage their concerns and show off her policy chops, the videos reinforced their reservations and also raised the specter that another hypothetical video could drop and knock her candidacy off-course. Without the backing of institutional players, Porter never got the outside validators and the financial support to really make her case to the voters. And as Dustin has pointed out before, her campaign couldn’t make up its mind if she was occupying the progressive lane or something more centrist. Porter’s biggest strength is how she talks about policy, but the muddled ideological position hampered her.
One final lightning round question before I let you go: predictions. What’s the thing about this race that we’ll all look back on in November and realize we underestimated?
White: I'll say we underestimated how decentralized politics has become. Candidates remained in this race well after it seemed like they had no path, when the party was basically imploring them to drop out, fueled by a sense that you could be one Mamdani-like viral video or one big super PAC check away from breaking through.
Mason: This is a cop-out, but if Xavier Becerra ends up winning in November, it’s obvious that we all underestimated him. He was an afterthought in the polls for most of the campaign, and if he's able to complete the journey from also-ran to governor-elect, that will be a remarkable comeback story.
Gardiner: We’ve underestimated how much new digital comms strategies, including paid content creators and various techniques to amplify social posts, have upended traditional campaigning. The topsy-turvy nature of the race and Becerra’s late surge with little money speak to that shift.
Jones: There’s (rightly) been a ton of attention paid to young social media influencers in this campaign, from their urging along Swalwell’s demise to making paid posts in support of candidates. But that interesting wrinkle could end up distracting us from a driving force behind Becerra’s (and Hilton’s) rises: older Californians. Come November, I think we may look back and decide we underestimated the sway of these most reliable voters.
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