FRANKLIN, Ind. — President Donald Trump’s retribution campaign here is not going as well as he'd like.
The push to oust eight Indiana Republican state senators after they refused to bow to him on redistricting was supposed to be a major show of force. But after millions of dollars spent and weeks of intense campaigning, his allies are still struggling to deliver a clear, consistent message to voters for why they should unseat the lawmakers.
Just a few dozen people showed up to a rally hosted by Turning Point USA with conservative activist Scott Pressler this past weekend, featuring a cardboard cutout of Trump holding his hand triumphantly in the air. And when POLITICO asked one of the president’s handpicked candidates what the defining issue of her campaign was, state Rep. Michelle Davis paused.
“Good question, um. Gosh, okay, defining issue. What’s it about?” she said, searching for an answer. “Well, what I say, what it's about is, that we need real, true conservatives out there. We need someone who's going to stand with the GOP party and the conservative people, the primary voters on stuff like common sense, stuff like making sure that boys aren't in girls locker rooms, boys don't play in girls sports, making sure that we stand up for parental rights, yeah, those are the kind of the defining things I think are out there.”
What’s telling is Davis did not mention state Sen. Greg Walker, the incumbent she’s challenging, was a vocal opponent of Trump’s prescribed map. “When I’m knocking on doors, not one person was talking to me about redistricting,” she confessed.
That’s no surprise.
Indiana’s May 5 primary is being fueled almost solely by Trump’s need for revenge, a fury that has unleashed nearly $8 million and counting in ads alone — not to mention copious amounts of mail — in combined spending on what are normally sleepy and often uncontested races, according to AdImpact. But the contests represent the challenge of turning out MAGA’s low-propensity voting coalition in the midterm elections when Trump is not on the ballot — let alone attempting to galvanize his voters around an arcane issue like redrawing political maps.
“My guess is it’s gonna be a mixed bag,” said a national GOP operative who has been working on the races. “Everybody is going to have their spin.”
Trump’s MAGA base is proven to turn out in droves to back him because they think he’ll help them — but they might not be as keen to turn out just to punish his foes.
“I’ve been reminded of a lesson I learned in business a long time ago: Revenge is not a strategy,” said former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a major GOP figure who opposed the gerrymandering and has worked to reelect the senators Trump is targeting.
MAGA forces are struggling to find a coherent theory of the case, and their messaging has largely avoided talking about redistricting. In one Senate district, Hoosier Leadership for America, Sen. Jim Banks’ political nonprofit run by longtime Team Trump operative Andrew Surabian, is hitting one target for being too old — even though he’s less than a year older than Trump.
“State Sen. Jim Buck. 80 years old. Decades in politics has changed him,” the narrator begins in the ad, which also hits him for allegedly voting “to let China own our farmland” and voting to “raise our gas tax.”
At least two of the White House-backed candidates are contending with reports about their complicated personal backgrounds, muddying their messages. “There are probably a couple candidates they wish they could have back,” said one Indiana Republican strategist, granted anonymity to assess White House strategy. “The question for the White House is, what do you consider a win? They’re sticking to what the data tells them in each of these races. We’ll see.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Some of the incumbents have fretted to allies in recent days that their internal polls have them losing, according to people familiar with their thinking.
An Indiana Trump ally estimated that five of the challengers were in races that were lean, like or safe Trump wins. Three of the races were tossups or safe.
Still, some of Trump’s closest allies in the state argue that the races aren’t really about the president.
“I think some people think it’s just about loyalty to Trump,” Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith told POLITICO. “I don't think that’s it at all. I really think what it's more about is, hey, the future direction in the Republican Party,” referring to whether the party ultimately becomes more Trumpian even as Trump is not on the ballot.
Republicans’ narrow loss in Virginia on Tuesday, when voters approved Democrats’ plans to gerrymander that state, sparked a fresh round of venting at Hoosier holdouts. Trump’s GOP critics, however, point out that the party was vastly outspent in Virginia’s close contest — and that they could have used some of the millions of dollars MAGA is instead spending on retribution in Indiana.
“MAGA groups are spending millions to primary Indiana state senators over a single seat but hardly spent a $ in VA with 4 house seats on the line,” Marc Short, former Vice President Mike Pence’s former chief of staff, posted to X. “Makes sense right?” (Pence himself has waded in, endorsing Buck.)
Even if Trump runs the table here, it could be a pyrrhic victory — every dollar MAGA spends here is one it doesn’t spend in a more competitive midterm state.
When asked whether the White House was too focused on seeking retribution in a safe red seat at the expense of playing defense in battlegrounds, a Republican close to the White House and granted anonymity by POLITICO to speak candidly replied: “We can do both.”
The eight state Senate primaries in which Trump has endorsed provide an easy scorecard with which to measure his influence in a crucial midterm year. But as the retribution campaign appears to sputter, Beckwith downplayed MAGA’s need to sweep the races.
“We win three, it'll be good,” Beckwith said. “If we win five, that’s a great night. And anything after five is just crazy.”
David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth, which is dumping $1.5 million across six of the seven primaries, said his ambitions are grander: “At this stage, we want all of them.”
About 90 miles north from Franklin, MAGA forces are targeting first-term state Sen. Spencer Deery, one of their earliest and most vocal redistricting opponents. A Turning Point Action flier accuses Deery of a hodgepodge of unwelcome positions: It says he "BETRAYED" Trump on redistricting, but also accuses him of voting against "SAFETY ON OUR ROADS," claimed he "SUPPORTS CORPORATE WELFARE," and "WANTS TO SELL OFF HOOSIER FARMLAND.”
The mailer befuddled Derry.
“I looked at these votes, and I can’t tell you what any of those are, honestly,” Derry told POLITICO amid an afternoon door-knocking session on Monday. “I think it says that they're clearly not thinking particularly or putting a lot of scrutiny into their analysis of the issues or the race.”
Last month, Deery realized he could potentially knock on a third more doors if he could zip around on an electric scooter instead of walking, so he purchased a $250 knock-off on Amazon. More than $2 million has already been spent on the race, most of it against him, for a contest he estimates will take 5,500 votes to win — more than $300 in spending per vote.
“That's an insane amount of money for a state Senate race,” he said.
But there are some signs MAGA’s muddled messaging may be backfiring
On Monday afternoon, Deery approached the home of Rosa Uhrin, 74, a longtime Republican who held an American flag she planned to hang on her porch.
“Hey, I recognize you,” she said, citing commercials against Deery.
He braced.
But instead of upbraiding him for his vote against redistricting, Uhrin told Deery she planned to vote for him.
“I'm a Republican, but I am just beside myself with him,” Uhrin said of Trump. “You can't back him anymore. You … can’t back him anymore. He's an idiot.”
Deery shrugged. “Sometimes I agree with him, sometimes I don't. But what I tell people all the time: I don't work for him.”
Uhrin gave Deery some encouragement. “I hope they see around those ads for you,” she said. “I hope they see that it's not all true.”
Deery’s shoulders loosened. He turned back toward the street for hours of more knocking, stopping at his car to grab his scooter.
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