White House officials and Democrats on Capitol Hill know the shutdown pain is about to get a lot worse.
But neither side is blinking — yet.
In the weeks ahead, long lines and canceled flights, so far localized in cities such as Houston, Atlanta and New Orleans, are expected to grow. Experts say the country is on the precipice of a surge in TSA callouts and resignations, which would strain the system nationwide. And there’s a tight timeline to resolve the impasse: Congress is set to leave for recess at the end of next week.
“It is not yet widespread ...[but] keep this thing going for another week or two, and there’s a real good chance it is going to be widespread,” said an aviation industry official, granted anonymity to discuss industry’s engagement with the Trump administration about the ordeal. “There’s a decent chance that this isn’t going to get resolved before [Congress recesses at the end of next week], and it’s going to take a giant meltdown to get it resolved.”
As the DHS shutdown entered its fifth week, both sides dug in, gambling that they can win the political messaging war over who’s responsible for the shutdown’s ripple effects. From the Trump administration, top officials blitzed the airwaves and cast blame on Democrats from official social media accounts, accusing the left of holding TSA agents’ livelihoods “hostage” and warning that the administration will have to take dire measures in the weeks ahead. TSA agents last week missed their first full paycheck after getting only partial checks since the shutdown began in mid-February.
“We’re fully stretched,” said acting deputy TSA administrator Adam Stahl on Fox News this week. “If this continues, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that we may have to quite literally shut down airports.”
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy likened the DHS shutdown to previous ones that have crippled the FAA’s air traffic controller force. In an interview with CNBC, Duffy warned: “you’re going to see small airports, I believe, shut down, you’re going to see extensive lines, and air travel is going to almost come to a …stop.” Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian, in an appearance on CNBC Tuesday, called the whole ordeal “inexcusable,” adding that TSA workers are just being used as “political chips” amid the shutdown fight.
“We’re outraged,” Bastian said, referring to the airline industry.
On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune suggested he may cancel the Senate’s recess if the shutdown is not over by then. It came as a bipartisan group of senators, including members of the Appropriations Committee and a clutch of Democrats that helped negotiate the end to the last shutdown, met privately in the Capitol with Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar. Together, they provided a suggestion that lawmakers were looking at the shutdown with renewed focus on ending it.
White House officials also huddled with travel industry officials on a call this week as fears inside the administration intensify about the worsening situation in the short- and long- term.
“I’m extremely worried, not just short term but throughout the summer,” said an administration official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “World Cup and America250 could be crippled if this isn’t resolved asap.”
For the first time in the weekslong negotiations with Democrats over the shutdown, White House officials released details of changes it’s willing to make to immigration enforcement — an attempt to show it is making a good-faith effort as Democrats deride their proposals as unserious. But officials had few answers about how it will manage the challenges with TSA in the weeks ahead.
A senior White House official, in a call with reporters this week, placed blame on Democrats for repeatedly blocking a temporary stopgap to fund the agency while negotiations over immigration continue.
“A bill that would pay the TSA agents, keep the lights on for a very short period of time and allow time for this negotiation,” said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the state of negotiations. “We put forward multiple different pathways for the Democrats to stop inflicting pain on these middle class … TSA workers who are working without pay for the third time this year.”
And Democrats this week sought to pin the blame on the White House and Republicans by trying to force a vote on legislation to fund DHS agencies other than Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, in floor remarks, accused Republicans of blocking TSA money.
“We know that there are discussions about ICE and Border Patrol that we haven’t resolved, but why hold TSA hostage? Why hold passengers at our airports who are waiting on long lines hostage?” he said.
“All the Republicans have to do is say yes, and those lines will be greatly reduced or go away.”
A situation in free fall
Prolonged wait times at airports and staff absences are creating pain points for hundreds of passengers. The problem doesn’t discriminate between large or small airports either as wait times continue to increase nationwide.
There have been acute issues at a handful of airports, including Houston’s William Hobby Airport. Unscheduled absence rates have skyrocketed at the airport, teetering between 30 and 55 percent. George Bush Intercontinental Airport, also in Houston, has likewise seen extreme wait times climbing up to three hours.
This week, Philadelphia International Airport said it was closing some of its security checkpoints for staffing reasons. New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport and Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport in New Orleans are additionally seeing increased absences, between 25 to 40 percent each.
As of Tuesday, 366 screeners have quit their jobs since the shutdown began. Thousands haven’t shown up to work.
The aviation industry official said travel organizations don’t understand why the effects have been localized to some airports and not others. For now, “it’s kind of like whack-a -mole,” but eventually will become “like a snowball going down the hill,” the official said. “Once it really starts, then it's going to accelerate significantly” as frustration mounts for the screener force.
All of this is happening in the midst of record travel during the spring break holiday, with summer just around the corner. CEOs of the nation’s top airlines on Sunday implored lawmakers in a letter to move on a resolution as an estimated 170 million travelers will take to the skies this spring.
“It shouldn’t take a letter from 10 CEOs,” Christopher Sununu, president and CEO of Airlines for America, said in an interview on MS Now on Tuesday. “It should just take walking into one TSA line, looking one [TSA screener] in the eyes by a member of Congress or the Senate, and having to explain why they don't get a paycheck.”
“I don’t know why the federal government thinks they can just write their own rules and play by a different set,” he said.
The American Federation of Government Employees, which represents TSA workers, backed that assertion.
“As the financial pressure grows, more workers will be forced into impossible choices,” AFGE National President Everett Kelley said in a statement. “The lines will get longer. The delays will get worse. The officers who haven’t left for more reliable employment will carry the burden of a system that treats them as expendable.”
“The time for excuses is over,” Kelley said later Thursday. “Pass a measure to reopen DHS, pay these workers, and don’t go home until you do.”
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